Oddsmakers: Mark Sanford more likely to become president than McCain, Paul

Beano Cook has mused that if you want to predict the future, go by what the oddsmakers in Vegas are saying. “Those guys live in nicer houses than we do,” I’d hear Beano say often on my local sports radio shows.

Strictly for research purposes, I took a gander at what the online wagering site BetUs is saying about the 2012 presidential election. The site is offering futures bets on the outcome of Nov. 2012′s balloting, and while we’re a long way from that day, what the bookies think the most likely outcomes are is intriguing. Here’s a screen shot of the chart in case you don’t want to visit a gambling website.

For those of you unfamiliar with oddsmaking, a minus sign indicates a bet that will pay off at less than even money. Currently, Barack Obama is at -130, meaning he’s the favorite. And a pretty major favorite, too: betting $100 on Obama would only return $77.

The fact that a sitting president would be a big favorite at this stage of the game isn’t surprising. Some of the other results, though, merit an eyebrow raise or two. Highlights:

* Sarah Palin is the frontrunner of the non-Obama field at a mere +900. (That means betting $100 on her to win would win you $900).

* Hillary Clinton is only at +1000 — barely behind Palin, tied with Mitt Romney, and well ahead of just about everyone else. And Joe Biden is only at +1500, dead even with Mike Huckabee on that next tier.

I find this deeply unsettling, for reasons you can probably guess that have nothing to do with impeachment or losing a primary.

* Mark Sanford is in the mix! Yes, he’s a longshot at +4000, but that puts him ahead of previous nominee John McCain and Internet favorite Ron Paul (both at +5000). Oddsmakers must feel like Americans love a good soulmate story — or haven’t tired of Appalachian Trail jokes.

* Other longshots include Newt Gingrich (who has been openly flirting with a presidential run) and Gen. David Petraeus (who has never intimated becoming a candidate for anything). The line on both is the same, +4000.

* The mid-range bets at +2000 are Al Gore, Michael Bloomberg, Condoleeza Rice, Tim Pawlenty, Evan Bayh and Bobby Jindal. Imagine that cocktail party.

What does it mean? Not much: it’s just a snapshot of probabilities that will change a lot moving forward. If you hold to Beano’s maxim, though, things aren’t looking so bad for Obama.