Just three weeks ago, our friends at Public Policy Polling reported that supporters of the marriage discrimination amendment held a 20 point lead over opponents. Today, the gap appears to be falling fast and is down to 14. This decline occurred before anti-amendment TV ads commenced this week.
Given that numerous polls have also shown that support for the substance of the amendment collapses once people actually understand what it would do, it’s enough to make an observer think that the amendment could be headed for a defeat reminiscent of the one that befell the so-called “personhood amendment” rejected by Mississippi voters last fall. That amendment was way ahead in the polls just a few weeks before the November election and then lost decisively once people figured out how radical it really was.