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Will demographic changes help Obama in NC?

Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly’s Political Animal blog has an interesting post today about the changing demographics of the electorate since 2008.

The article, in turn, quotes veteran Democratic author and activist Ruy Teixeira from a piece in The New Republic in which he paints an optimistic picture for Obama:

“Turning to the New South swing states of North Carolina and Florida, there have also been sizable demographic shifts over the last four years. In North Carolina, the minority share of eligible voters has gone up over 4 points, with simultaneous declines of around 2 points in both white college and white non-college eligibles. In Florida, the increase in minority share has also been about 4 points, while white working class eligibles have declined 3 points and white college eligibles by 1 point.”

Kilgore’s post concludes this way:

“Stereotypes die hard, and journalists are often surprised at the emergence or disappearance of this or that state from the electoral “battleground.” But the trends Teixeira examines may help explain why Obama could quite possibly win North Carolina while losing Iowa, which not much of anyone would have imagined immediately after 2008.”

 

 

 

11 Comments

  1. Frank Burns

    July 9, 2012 at 2:49 pm

    I have a strong feeling that the die has been cast on Obama in NC and many other places. Demographics won’t be any factor. When a president has failed to deliver and the economy continues to languish, results speak for themselves. One thing Americans cannot stand is a failure. Let Jimmy Carter serve as an example. You all are just fooling yourself if you think Obama has any chance of winning in NC. It will not be pretty in November if you are an Obama supporter.

  2. david esmay

    July 9, 2012 at 3:09 pm

    The bad news for you and Myth Robme, Frank, is you’re as delusional as his tax plan that will increase the deficit by 10.5 trillion, 4.5 by extending gov. bush’s cuts and another 6.0 of his own. The American people aren’t buying his b.s. or his secrecy, whether it’s his very questionable personal finances and off shore accounts and holding companies,or his Swiss bank accounts. His only plan is to double down on the failed policies of the right that would lead us into a depression, the likes of which we haven’t seen in 80 years.
    Unlike his father,Myth isn’t forthcoming about anything. His campaign slogan has been,”Elect me, and soon secret plans to make everything better will erupt from the Oval office”. Hell the people in his own party, including that dumb ass Boehner, don’t like him. I don’t care how much money GOP billionaires spend, if it looks like a turd, and smells like a turd, it’s a turd, and that GOP turd won’t float.

  3. Jack

    July 9, 2012 at 8:57 pm

    Frank

    Setting aside from your bitter tone of “We’ll get even with you just wait and see” you may be correct.

    If Republicans are able to remove everyone but Republicans from the voting roster in NC and throughout the country perhaps Mitt will stand a chance.

    After all, Republicans seek support from the only demographic peers that understand their plight. And those peers are – you guessed it “rich white guys” or present day Visigoths sacking the electoral process and the U.S. Treasury.

  4. Frank Burns

    July 9, 2012 at 10:11 pm

    Jack,
    I don’t see my tone as bitter but realistic. Face it Obama had his chance and failed to do the job. Do you honestly think that the public will reward somebody who could not cut the mustard with another chance at the same poor performance as the last 4 years? The public is not stupid and cannot stomach a leader who can’t lead, but blames somebody or something never his own shortcomings. Havy you ever seen a leader do that? The demographics don’t determine how people vote. Performance does.

  5. Frances Jenkins

    July 10, 2012 at 6:55 am

    David,
    Act like an adult, speak like an adult and be an adult. You are plum foolish.

  6. david esmay

    July 10, 2012 at 8:54 am

    The cons in congress and the righty leadership has not put forth a single viable solution to our economic problems. The American people are sick of GOP House and Senate leaders putting forth legislation masked as job bills that in reality are nothing more than tax cuts and deregulation, the same crap that got us into this mess. In the con dictionary “job creation” is code for tax cuts for the rich. 70% of our economy is consumer driven and putting more and more money in fewer and fewer hand decreases demand. It’s freaking simple, but apparently not simple enough for the simple minded on the right. Raise taxes on the wealthy and corporations, make them actually pay it and cut defense. That will get things moving and reduce the debt and deficits.

  7. Jack

    July 10, 2012 at 9:05 am

    Have I ever seen a leader do that? As a matter of fact I have seen leaders do just that.

    Leaders in the banking industry, leaders in the corporate world and leaders on Wall Street performed poorly and the world has paid for it. Yet in all three areas they maintain that they didn’t see the economic disaster coming when evidence reveals that they not only saw it coming they created the “Greater Recession”. I consider such malfeasance poor performance.

    Demographics certainly play a significant role in determining how people vote. Have you looked at a district map of NC?

  8. david esmay

    July 10, 2012 at 10:22 am

    Frank how do feel about Reagan turning tail and running from Lebanon? The problem with the gops is they love image, it’s everything, substance however, means nothing. Myth Robme is the personification of this, a truly synthetic candidate.

  9. david esmay

    July 10, 2012 at 12:42 pm

    Frank, do you know why the GOP is going to lose, and lose big? I’ll tell you, for all their rhetoric, republican party leaders won’t do anything to decrease unemployment, reduce deficits and debt. Deficit reduction is a long term problem, but decreasing unemployment to 5.3% would immediately cut the deficit by $ 5.6 trillion. This something republicans oppose because their mission in life has become to commit economic suicide to regain power through corporate subsides and job killing tax cuts, raiding the SS Trust, and abolishing Medicare to pay for their deficit, even though 81% of registered republicans oppose doing so. The U.S. could realize a budget surplus in 10 years by cutting defense($5.5 trillion), ending oil subsides($5.2 trillion), enacting the individual mandate($5.0 trillion), introducing a real federal jobs program aimed at rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure and putting people back to work($3.0 trillion), and restoring Clinton era tax levels ($9.5 trillion). Decreasing federal revenues by reducing income taxes also reduces the amount of federal aid states receive, which in turn forces local governments to increase taxes, something republicans, teapublicans, neo-cons, and wing nuts supposedly oppose. Republicans have systematically “borrowed” 2.5 trillion from the SS Trust Fund to help pay for Gov. Bush’s wars and tax cuts for the wealthy, and oil subsides; instead of raising taxes on the wealthy to repay what they “borrowed”, Republicans have plans to ransack SS to avoid repayment, which will render the Trust Fund insolvent, even though 87% of Americans oppose such a move. We don’t have a spending problem, we have a problem with republicans giving revenue reducing job killing tax cuts to the wealthy. Even the republican candidate for President stated in an interview,”If I told you what my plan was, I’d never get elected.” I’ve got news for you, even if you don’t Myth, you’re still not getting elected.

  10. Frank Burns

    July 10, 2012 at 2:41 pm

    David,
    You are making things too complicated. It’s very simple, Obama could not do the job so it’s time to let the other guy give it a try. A basic rule of thumb is we don’t reward failure.

  11. david esmay

    July 10, 2012 at 3:39 pm

    You’re right Frank, Supply Side economics has been a complete and utter failure, that’s why all GOP congressmen and women should be removed in order to save the country. The President doesn’t pass laws or bills, congress does. Boehner, Cantor, McConnell, and their ilk must go.