Will demographic changes help Obama in NC?
Ed Kilgore at the Washington Monthly’s Political Animal blog has an interesting post today about the changing demographics of the electorate since 2008.
The article, in turn, quotes veteran Democratic author and activist Ruy Teixeira from a piece in The New Republic in which he paints an optimistic picture for Obama:
“Turning to the New South swing states of North Carolina and Florida, there have also been sizable demographic shifts over the last four years. In North Carolina, the minority share of eligible voters has gone up over 4 points, with simultaneous declines of around 2 points in both white college and white non-college eligibles. In Florida, the increase in minority share has also been about 4 points, while white working class eligibles have declined 3 points and white college eligibles by 1 point.”
Kilgore’s post concludes this way:
“Stereotypes die hard, and journalists are often surprised at the emergence or disappearance of this or that state from the electoral “battleground.” But the trends Teixeira examines may help explain why Obama could quite possibly win North Carolina while losing Iowa, which not much of anyone would have imagined immediately after 2008.”