Maybe this has been reported elsewhere, but if it has I missed it. Consider the following data pointed out to NC Policy Watch by a local elections expert. It actually comes from the Pope-Civitas website called “Carolina Transparency” (thanks guys!):
Since January 2009 through the first week of September 2012 North Carolina has netted roughly 115,000 new registered voters. The net 115k gain comes from:
- a loss of 110,000 Democrats,
- a loss of 8,000 Republicans,
- a gain of 222,000 Unaffiliateds,
- a gain of 11,000 Libertarians
This would appear to be bad news for Democrats. It likely reflects older Democrats (many of whom may not have voted Democratic in recent elections) dying and dropping off the rolls and those voters not being replaced by new Democrats.
The net 115k gain also come from:
- a gain of 9,000 new white voters,
- a gain of 53,000 new black voters,
- a gain of 53,000 “other” new voters (“Other” is a catch-all category which includes Latino, Asian, and Native American voters).
That would appear to be bad news for Republicans. The net gain in new registrants comes almost entirely from minority voters making the electorate more racially diverse than it was in 2008.
One thing the Civitas website does not have is voter registration statistics by age which would be interesting since they would allow a person to measure whether President Obama’s campaign is making progress in registering young voters.
The bottom line: North Carolina’s electorate is increasingly more diverse and less partisan in 2012 than in 2008. It will be interesting to see what this will mean come November.