While many of us are anxiously waiting for the Supreme Court decision on King v. Burwell, a recent poll shows that 44-percent of people still don’t know much about the case.
The King v. Burwell ruling will determine the legality of health insurance subsidies for states using the federal marketplace. If the Supreme Court rules against the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and decides that health insurance subsidies for the 34 states that do not have a state marketplace are “illegal,” more than six million people across the U.S. may lose their ability to access affordable health care. Since they live in one of the states that rely on the federal marketplace, 458,738 North Carolinians could lose their health coverage. Nationally, the average subsidy (or advance tax credit) amount is $272 per month and in North Carolina, people receive $316 per month.
Considering that subsidies could become unavailable as early as September 2015 and that North Carolina has failed to expand Medicaid, the number of uninsured could increase to nearly one-million people. Sylvia Burwell, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, has stated that if there is a negative outcome from the Supreme Court decision on King v. Burwell, the U.S. Congress and state policymakers will have to decide on how to keep access to health coverage affordable.
As data continue to show that the ACA is working to increase access to care – for example, the rate of uninsured women has decreased nearly eight percent since 2013 and 12.2 million adults have access to health care in the 30 states (including DC) that have expanded Medicaid – state lawmakers and Congress may be feeling even more pressure to keep subsidies. Even the Congressional Budget Office has reported that gutting the ACA would increase the deficit by $137 billion by 2025. Despite the potential economic impact, media reports continue to highlight the fact that conservative policymakers in Washington D.C. do not have a better alternative to the ACA. Further, one “fix” proposed by Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin would only extend subsidies for current ACA enrollees until 2017.
If the outcome of King v. Burwell isn’t positive, let’s hope that our state and national policymakers work to keep 6.4 million people insured. No matter how the Supreme Court rules, let’s hope that our state policymakers will take on the next challenge – extending access to affordable health care to 500,000 North Carolinians in the coverage gap as Medicaid expansion makes economic and moral sense.