2015 Fiscal Year State Budget, NC Budget and Tax Center

State revenues are coming in $62 million under projection for the first three months of the fiscal year, according to the Fiscal Research Division’s (FRD) new General Fund Revenue Report. This report provides an assessment of revenue collection performance for the state on a quarterly basis and is particularly important considering the state’s inadequate and unsustainable budget (a point that has been fleshed out in this Budget and Tax Center’s blog series). The growing cost of the 2013 tax plan further challenges state lawmakers ability to rebuild what was lost in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

Despite state revenues having not yet fully recovered from the downturn, lawmakers overhauled North Carolina’s tax code last year in a way that significantly reduced state revenue. In its first year of implementation, the tax plan is already costing far more than expected. Fiscal Research Division estimated that in FY2015, the plan would cost $512.8 million—but it is already costing $191 million more than that. By the end of the fiscal year, the revenue shortfall could reach as high as $600 million—for a total cost of the tax plan of more than $1.1 billion—according Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimates using up-to-date taxpayer data (see the chart below).

In other words, the $62 million revenue shortfall in the first quarter of the state’s fiscal year foreshadows what’s to come by the end of the fiscal year, assuming ITEP’s estimates turn out to be accurate. Read More

NC Budget and Tax Center, Poverty and Income Data 2013

The gains of economic growth from 2012 to 2013 passed over low- and moderate-income North Carolinians for yet another year, according to  data released by the US Census Bureau last month. Poverty and stagnant living standards in North Carolina have become the norm during the current economic recovery. High rates of hardship persist because of the state’s ongoing job shortage and the rapid acceleration of low-wage work that fails to provide a pathway to the middle class.

A glimmer of hope exists, however. The poverty rate would have been much worse in the absence of public policies that provide necessary support. US Census Bureau data show that work and income supports blunted the extent of poverty’s reach across the United States. Using an alternative poverty measure, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Unemployment Benefits, and Social Security helped keep poverty in check by lifting millions of American above the federal poverty line. That’s an annual income of $11,490 for an individual and $23,550 for a family of four in 2013.

SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, lifted 3.7 million people out of poverty and helped them meet basic needs, as illustrated in the graphic below. Read More

NC Budget and Tax Center, Poverty and Income Data 2013

North Carolina is enduring a painfully slow economic recovery. There are too few jobs open for all of the people looking for work, and the majority of the new jobs available pay wages so low that families can’t make ends meet. The ongoing economic hardship is evidenced in new data released last week by the Census Bureau. Statewide, the poverty rate held steady at 17.9 percent in 2013, with more than 1.7 million North Carolinians living on incomes below the federal poverty level. That’s about $24,000 annually for a family of four—certainly not enough to pay all the bills, much less get ahead.

However, just looking at statewide averages can mask the concentrations of hardship in particular geographic communities. A large and growing body of research shows that where one lives can determine if one has access to the educational and employment networks that can pave a pathway to the middle class. Because place is deeply connected to the opportunity structure, it important to analyze county-level (as well as neighborhood-level) variances in poverty.

Of the 40 counties in North Carolina for which 2013 data is available, 15 are urban and 25 are rural (based on population size).* Nine of the ten counties with the highest poverty rates were rural counties, which continue to face job loss and struggle with the consequences of the exodus of manufacturing jobs. The highest county-level poverty rate was in Robeson County, where nearly 1 in 3 residents lived in poverty. In fact, Robeson County consistently ranks as the poorest county in the state and as one of the poorest in the nation. Read More

NC Budget and Tax Center, Poverty and Income Data 2013

Yesterday, the US Census Bureau reported that in 2013 more than 1.7 million North Carolinians lived in poverty, meaning they found it difficult to afford the basics, such as decent housing, nutritious food, and reliable child care. That’s more people than the populations of Asheville, Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh, and Wilmington combined. While poverty remains high across all racial groups in North Carolina and throughout the nation compared to pre-recession levels, communities of color continue to face the highest levels of economic hardship.

The federal poverty level is less than $24,000 a year for a family of four. It is less than half of the income required to be economically secure.

The number of non-Hispanic whites living in poverty is greater than any other group in North Carolina. At the same time, some communities of color are much more likely to live on the brink, earning an income that puts them below the federal poverty line. In 2013, 32.5 percent of Latinos, 28.9 percent of American Indians, and 28 percent of African Americans lived in poverty compared to 14.4 percent for Asians and 12.3 percent of non-Hispanic whites (see chart below). Poverty has grown for all groups since the recession, with Hispanics and African Americans experiencing the biggest jumps in economic hardship. Read More

NC Budget and Tax Center, Poverty and Income Data 2013

Poverty remained high in North Carolina last year, according to new Census Bureau data released today. The new data highlights that many people have not benefitted from the state’s weak economic recovery and that North Carolina must do more to help struggling people afford basics like decent housing, nutritious food, and reliable child care, and transportation.

One in five North Carolinians lived in poverty in 2013, equating less than $24,000 a year for a family of four. The median annual income in North Carolina adjusted for inflation did not rise between 2012 and 2013 and is lower now compared to 2009 when the official economic recovery began. Yet other sources show that incomes at the top have grown and the gaps between the top and bottom and top and middle have widened.

North Carolina lawmakers have yet to rebuild what was lost during the recession. Throughout the economic recovery, they have either made deep cuts to or provided inadequate investments for early childhood development, public schools, the UNC System, and nonprofits promoting job and business development in the state’s economically distressed areas. These are key services that invest in people’s future and build a strong economy that offers all families the opportunity to thrive. Lawmakers have also dismantled services that help people get back on their feet when they are struggling, including unemployment benefits, job training programs, and the Earned Income Tax Credit that makes work pay and helps parents avoid raising their children in poverty.

The new Census data shows that progress towards eliminating poverty in the state is stuck: Read More