NC Budget and Tax Center

NC Budget and Tax Center

We still don’t know exactly what kind of tax and budget deal will emerge from the legislature when it wraps up business in the coming weeks, but it will likely include another round of tax cuts for large multi-state corporations. We’ve also seen an alarming push to bake further tax reductions and spending limits into the state constitution, called TABOR, which would constitutionally mandate policy that we’ve never even tested through regular legislation, and which has been a proven failure in Colorado. Against this backdrop, remember that there is no evidence that tax cuts can solve the economic challenges that we face.

Tax cuts have not improved North Carolina wages. Now that we have recovered from the worst of the Great Recession, many economists see a lack of wage growth our most pressing economic challenge. Wages in North Carolina are even more stagnate than for the US as a whole, a problem that has not been solved by tax cuts over the last few years. The average hourly wage in North Carolina is now roughly $3 less than the national average, a gap that has actually widened since the first major round of recent tax cuts passed in 2013. Tax cuts have not solved our wage problem, and there’s no reason to expect that change.

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NC Budget and Tax Center

Legislators approved a third budget extension today as the House and Senate leadership continue efforts to iron out a final budget deal. The existing temporary budget, known officially as a Continuing Resolution, is set to expire on Monday. If signed by the Governor, the newest extension will keep public programs and services operating through September 18th, which is 79 days after the original budget deadline of July 1st.

The third budget extension will keep state government operating exactly as the second stop-gap measure approved earlier this month. I outlined those details in a previous blog post.

Leadership in the House and Senate chambers already agreed to a topline spending target of $21.735 billion for the 2016 fiscal year that runs through June 30, 2016. That means state investments as a part of the economy would remain below the 45—year average, impeding the ability to restore previous cuts and make progress in a significant way. Read More

NC Budget and Tax Center

State lawmakers would like to amend North Carolina’s state constitution in ways that would undermine our ability to adequately meet the needs of a growing and changing state and impede our ability to build today for a strong economy for the future. These amendments would reduce annual state revenue by nearly $2 billion if implemented in 2015, meaning state funding cuts to important public investments that drive the state forward – our public schools, affordable higher education, safe and healthy communities, and modern infrastructure.

Colorado, which enacted TABOR in 1992, serves as a cautionary tale regarding the perils of taking such a path. The state suspended the law for five years in 2005 in response to a sharp decline in public services. As a result of TABOR, Colorado went from the middle of the pack to the bottom among states in regards to state support for public education and initiatives that serve children. Regarding Colorado, an updated 2015 report by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities highlights:

  • Colorado fell from 35th to 49th in the nation in K-12 spending as a percentage of personal income.
  • College and university funding as a share of personal income declined from 35th in the nation to 48th.
  • Colorado fell to near the bottom of national rankings in providing children with full, on-time vaccinations.
  • The share of low-income children in the state who lacked health insurance doubled, making Colorado the worst in the nation by this measure

North Carolina has ALREADY experienced erosion in state support for public schools, higher education and early childhood programs in recent years and currently ranks near the bottom among states in many areas. The implementation of these constitutional amendments would all but guarantee a last place finish in every race, every year.

  • North Carolina already ranks 43rd in average pay for our teachers.
  • North Carolina had the largest decline among states in average teacher salaries from 2003-04 to 2013-14.
  • North Carolina ranks 41st in change in state spending per student at 4-yr public universities since 2008

TABOR would make sure that we are unable to boost investments in early childhood initiatives, public schools, and public colleges and universities at a time when doing so is important to North Carolina becoming a more competitive and attractive state.

Contrary to the saying that if you’re at the bottom the only way to go is up, if TABOR comes to North Carolina, the only fate for the Tar Heel State is a permanent place at the bottom in regards to our commitment to public education.

NC Budget and Tax Center

As North Carolina students embark upon a new school year, lots of media coverage has focused on waning state-level support for public schools. This waning support extends beyond public schools to both ends of the education pipeline – early childhood and higher education. Whereas North Carolina should be boosting investments in its entire education pipeline in order to become a more competitive and attractive state, we have taken a different path.

Early childhood programs, like NC Pre-K and the Child Care Subsidy Program, are crucial to promoting the healthy development of North Carolina children. Although child poverty has worsened since the Great Recession, state investments in early childhood programs remain woefully inadequate while waiting lists persist. Today, the NC Pre-K program serves approximately 8,000 fewer four-year olds compared to 2009 peak levels during the recession (see chart below).

Chart 1

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NC Budget and Tax Center

The new state labor market data will come out tomorrow.  Ahead of that and in light of the current discussion of unemployment insurance in the General Assembly, it seemed a good time to revisit the state of the labor market for jobless workers and the effectiveness of unemployment insurance in providing workers with the support they need while looking for work and in buttressing the economy.

Prosperity Watch this week looked at data available from the North Carolina Department of Commerce that shows at the county level the ratio of jobless workers to job openings. More than two-thirds of the state’s counties still have more jobless workers than job openings.  Even if all the job openings in those 83 counties were filled, there would still be workers looking for work.

Even while North Carolina has cut the number of weeks that workers can claim unemployment insurance, a lack of job openings means that a lot of people are spending prolonged periods out of work..  Despite the official recovery, one out of three jobless workers has been out of work for 26 weeks or more.  The long-term unemployed face a host of additional barriers to employment including discrimination in the application process, lapse in skills for the work place and mounting debt that may make transportation or housing difficult to sustain.

Unemployment insurance was designed to prevent just this kind of vicious cycle.  The system is meant to ensure that workers who lost their jobs through no fault of their own—like because of a business downturn—can meet their basic needs while they look for work and thus not withdraw completely from participating in economic life as consumers, renters or homeowners.  Today however, the system is not meeting that goal:

  • The state has a 15% recipiency rate, measuring the number of jobless workers who receive unemployment insurance, for the first quarter of 2015 which ranks us 47th in the country.
  • The state has an average weekly benefit amount of $231.30 which ranks us 47th in the country.
  • The average duration that a jobless worker receives unemployment insurance is 12.9 weeks which ranks us 45th in the country.

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