Missing Workers

Missing Workers, NC Budget and Tax Center

The official unemployment rate ticked down in September slightly to 6.7 percent but if you count the number of workers missing from the labor force–those who would be looking for work if employment opportunities were stronger–that rate would be 12.8 percent.

As Patrick Conway, an economist at UNC Chapel Hill, shared in the News & Observer this week, the untold story of the state’s labor market is the story of these missing workers and the inefficiency in the economy that must be addressed when the state does not ensure those who want to work have job opportunities.

Our September update to the number of missing workers in North Carolina demonstrates the failure of the unemployment rate alone to signal this very real problem in the labor market and the need for sound public policy responsesMissing Workers September 2014.

 

Missing Workers, NC Budget and Tax Center, Uncategorized

The official unemployment rate ticked up in August to 6.8 percent but if you count those missing workers who would be in the labor market if job opportunities were stronger that rate would be 12. 6 percent.

Our update to the number of missing workers in North Carolina reflects the ongoing challenge for workers when there are too few jobs for those who want to work. It also demonstrates the failure of the unemployment rate alone to tell the story of what is happening in the state’s labor market.

The number of missing workers at Missing Workers August 2014the state level is calculated based on expected labor force participation rates while accounting for demographic trends like an aging population. As an indicator, the number of missing workers and an unemployment rate that accounts for them provides information about how far the current labor market is from meeting all the needs of workers in the economy.

North Carolina’s recovery will continue to struggle to deliver benefits broadly as long as so many workers remain missing from the labor force because there are too few jobs.

 

Missing Workers, NC Budget and Tax Center

Yesterday’s release of the latest labor market numbers for July 2014 continues to show a slow recovery of jobs in North Carolina. Job growth, while occurring, is insufficient to ensure that the state’s growing working age population has employment opportunities. North Carolina has still not replaced the nearly 300,000 jobs lost during the Great Recession. In fact, the state’s job creation over the year (2.1 percent) is not significantly different than that for the nation (1.9 percent) over the same period. The state’s jobs deficit also remains high at 470,000, and at the current annual rate of job creation will require five years to close.

In this context, here is the missing workers update for July 2014: there still remain more than 256,000 North Carolinians who are missing from the labor force.  These are folks who would be seeking employment if job opportunities were stronger. If these workers were counted in the unemployment rate, that rate would be 12 percent rather than the official unemployment rate for July 2014 of 6.5 percent.

BTC - Missing Workers July 2014

Missing Workers, NC Budget and Tax Center

Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the NC Division of Employment Security released data on the state of North Carolina’s labor market. While the decline in the official unemployment rate may have generated headlines, the reality is the labor market continues to provide too few job opportunities for those who seek work.

The number of missing workers, which estimates who would be in the labor market if job opportunities were stronger, provides additional insight into the state of North Carolina’s labor market.  As of April 2014, there are an estimated 242,164 missing workers in North Carolina.  Again, these are North Carolinians who would be seeking work if jobs were available. If these workers were included in the official unemployment rate that rate would be nearly twice the official unemployment rate: 11.4 percent rather than 6.2 percent.

BTC - Missing Workers April 2014