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Commentary

As state leaders deride the unemployed as lazy good-for-nothings and slash their insurance benefits, the news about finding a job job remains discouraging for a large swath of North Carolinians. Here’s the latest sobering news about the “Carolina Comeback” from economist Patrick McHugh:

“Unemployment is still a major problem in North Carolina. The headline unemployment rate has inched up from 5.3% to 5.9% since the beginning of the year, but that still doesn’t tell the whole story. When people who have been forced out of the job market since the Great Recession by a lack of job openings are included, the actual unemployment rate is still in double digits, almost twice what is commonly reported. This gap between the official unemployment rate and the reality on the ground can skew the policy conversation, making it look like the good times are back when that’s not really the case.

The US economy has improved since facing down the prospect of complete collapse a few years ago, which has buoyed employment prospects in North Carolina. However, any talk of a complete recovery is grossly overstated. There are likely more than 230,000 North Carolinians who would like to work, but don’t show up in the official figures. When those “missing workers” are included, the total tally of North Carolinians who can’t find a job rises past half a million. Read More

Commentary

Be sure to check out the Sunday edition of Raleigh’s News & Observer for an excellent column by NC Budget and Tax Center economist Patrick McHugh: “Hold the applause for NC’s sputtering economic recovery.” As Patrick notes:

“The worst of the Great Recession is in the rearview mirror, but the recovery has left far too many people, families and communities worse off. When you take a sober look at North Carolina’s economic reality, the breathless self-congratulations ring a bit hollow. An alarming pattern has emerged: Economic growth is not producing broad prosperity, which is trouble for everyone….

We’ve also replaced a lot of middle-class careers with low-paying, dead-end jobs. Thousands of jobs have been lost in industries that were the bedrock of middle-class North Carolina for generations, particularly manufacturing and construction. These were jobs where hard work brought livable wages and opportunities for advancement, jobs that could support a family, and jobs that offered a piece of the American Dream.

At the same time, we’ve seen an explosion in low-wage service jobs with few opportunities to move up. The average wage in industries that have grown since 2007 – like hotels and restaurants – is almost $10,000 less than in industries that have declined. When growth doesn’t create good-paying jobs, the lack of prosperity reverberates through the entire economy as people stop going out to eat, buying houses, getting new cars and scale back in a host of other ways….

Leaders in Raleigh need to be constantly reminded that we cannot accept growth without broad prosperity. Too many people are out of work, too many paychecks are coming up short and too many communities are being left out of the recovery.

We have neglected the investments needed to provide our children a 21st century education and our working men and women skills training; to build a transportation system that can move at the speed of business; to help small businesses withstand the competitive pressure of the modern market. This lack of investment has blunted the recovery and left the deepest problems with North Carolina’s economy unaddressed.

Instead of taking pride in finally escaping the recession, we should be focused on building a future that North Carolina can really be proud of.”

Read the entire op-ed by clicking here.

Commentary

If you’re an unemployed or underemployed North Carolinian trying to get by in a community that’s never recovered from the Great Recession, take heart: things are actually just ducky according to conservative think tanks — no matter what your eyes and bank account tell you.

For “confirmation” check out this morning’s Locke Foundation missive from the group’s former director: “Job Growth Sizzled Last Year.” The column is just the latest in an ceaseless series of articles designed to spin the situation in North Carolina and convince people that two obvious things are not true: a) The state economy continues to struggle to generate good jobs to replace the ones lost in the Great Recession and b) the North Carolina recovery that has occurred is mostly just a reflection of national trends.

Happily, some analysts and experts aren’t just trying to cover up for the destructive and counter-productive policies of the McCrory administration and the General Assembly (which, together, have about as much to do with the limited good news that has taken place in the state as they do with the price of tea in China).

Patrick McHugh of the Budget and Tax Center, for instance, explained what’s really going on in the North Carolina economy Monday in this new report: “Growth Without Prosperity.” This is from the release that accompanied the report:

“The worst of the Great Recession is behind us, but the damage lingers, weighing down communities and families across North Carolina. We are now seven years removed from the financial crisis of 2008, but in North Carolina wages are down, job creation is lagging, and many communities are still stuck in recession. Read More

Commentary

Budget and Tax Center economist Patrick McHugh is out with a powerful new report entitled “Growth Without Prosperity: Seven years After the Great Recession Started, Recovery Still Eludes North Carolina.” This is from the release that accompanied the report:

The worst of the Great Recession is behind us, but the damage lingers, weighing down communities and families across North Carolina. We are now seven years removed from the financial crisis of 2008, but in North Carolina wages are down, job creation is lagging, and many communities are still stuck in recession.

Given all of the positive headlines lately, it’s easy to get the impression that the recovery is in full swing. Last year was the best since the financial crisis, with North Carolina and the nation finally getting back to the number of jobs that existed before the recession. The unemployment rate has also been dropping since the bottom of the Great Recession in 2009. However, these positive trends do not tell the whole story, particularly in North Carolina.

There are still not enough jobs for everyone who wants to work in North Carolina, but that’s far from the only problem. Simply put, North Carolina’s economy is not working for everyone:

Growth without prosperity: Economic output has rebounded nicely since the worst days of the recession, but it is not translating into larger paychecks for many North Carolinians. Adjusting for inflation, gross state product—which measures the value of all goods and services sold—is up 18.5% compared to 2007, but wages are actually down slightly. Read More

Commentary

As it has at the national level, North Carolina’s official unemployment rate continues to fall. And while there’s certainly some good news there, numerous analysts continue to explain why this recovery is especially tepid and shallow for a huge proportion of North Carolinians (and why the trickledown economic policies pursued by state leaders continue to fall short). The latest comes from the economic wonks at CFED. Here’s the release:

New Report Finds North Carolina Ranks Near the Bottom for Financial Security of its Residents
Overall Poor Performance Shows Persistent Financial Insecurity, Need for Comprehensive Public Policy Response

Washington, D.C. – Despite an improving national economy, new data released today by the Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED) show many North Carolina residents are barely scraping by. CFED’s 2015 Assets & Opportunity Scorecard ranked the state near the bottom among all states for its high number of low-wage jobs (ranked 41st), as well as its high number of low-income residents who don’t have health insurance (42nd) or a four-year college degree (44th).

The troubling data underscore the need for programs and policies that help more families achieve financial security, including reinstatement of the state’s Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and expansion of Medicaid. Additionally, a Children’s Savings Account program would provide every child in the state with their own matched savings account for postsecondary education. Recent research has shown that these accounts dramatically increase college attendance and graduation rates. Read More