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NC Budget and Tax Center

Revenues that fuel the state budget are growing so slowly that they are not even keeping pace with population-plus-inflation growth, according to Barry Boardman who is the chief economist for the state legislature’s non-partisan Fiscal Research Division. Weak economic growth and tax cuts are keeping state revenues low, Boardman explained during a presentation that he gave to lawmakers earlier this week.

More tax cuts are looming too—a move that will sustain the damaging trend of slow revenue growth that makes it harder to meet basic needs and build a stronger economy. The House and Senate leadership put forward budgets that included additional tax cuts totaling approximately $652 million and $950 million, respectively, over the next two years.

The presentation shows that during the immediate years before the Great Recession, state revenues were growing faster than the inflation-plus-population benchmark. At that time, the state tax code was better suited and comprised of a progressive income tax based on ability to pay. The trend reversed after the 2008 fiscal year, with the population-plus-inflation growth rate outpacing revenue growth. The economic downturn caused revenues to plummet. And before revenues were able to fully recover back to pre-recession levels, lawmakers cut taxes deeply as part of the 2013 tax plan.

Revenues are not expected to outpace population-plus-inflation growth in either of the next two years; they are expected to remain below the long-run historical average. Read More

NC Budget and Tax Center

North Carolina is losing ground on key economic indicators such as child poverty and family economic security. A new report from NC Child  paints a bleak picture of how children are suffering from the fallout of an economy that is downright broken for many North Carolina families, as well as state lawmakers’ recent policy decisions. Genuine progress is within the state’s reach if lawmakers make smart investments and enact better policy choices.

More than a half of a million children belong to families that are living in poverty and struggling to pay the bills, even though the state just entered into the sixth year of the official economic recovery. In fact, child poverty is higher now than it was when the recession hit: 1 in 4 children currently live in poverty compared to 1 in 5 children in 2008. And, poverty has the fiercest grip on children of color and children under age five here and across the United States.

Previous research shows that three-quarters of these children have at least one parent that works, but low wages and unstable employment keep families in the economic struggle. This economic reality is further confirmed in the NC Child report, which finds that nearly 1 in 3 children live in families that lack secure employment, an increase since the recession hit. Read More

NC Budget and Tax Center

Contributed by MDC

What’s one thing that all places in North Carolina have in common? From our booming metros to our small towns, from Roanoke Rapids to Cullowhee, income mobility for low-income young people in this state, and in the South in general, is far worse than in other U.S. regions. It’s surprising to learn that even in our most economically dynamic places like Charlotte and the Triangle, people who grow up in families at the low end of the income distribution are likely to stay there as adults, and only small numbers make it to the middle or top. According to data from the Equality of Opportunity Project, for young people born in the bottom quintile of the income distribution in the Triangle, 37 percent will stay there as adults, another 29 percent will only move up one quintile, and a mere 5 percent will make it to the highest quintile.

Over the past two decades, Durham has moved from a low-skilled, tobacco-reliant community to become the “City of Medicine” and a Southern center of culture and creativity. Its dynamic, knowledge-based economy is a magnet for the health, pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and IT industries. Its universities and Research Triangle Park, both created and sustained through a history of public and private investment, are rich in employers and in the middle-skill jobs that pay living wages for new recruits, boasting an employment rate projected to outstrip the state and the U.S. by 2021. Yet, despite this thriving market, too few youth and young adults who grow up in Durham, particularly youth of color, are getting these good jobs, and too few have the academic and workplace skills to compete with more qualified candidates from other cities and states. Many struggle to find their way through a fragmented collection of institutions and organizations that are working to support young people but are not always well-resourced or working together. Much of this reflects Durham’s history as a tobacco and textile manufacturing center, where employment was not conditioned on education or credentialing, along with a legacy of race-based inequity in educational investment and expectations.

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NC Budget and Tax Center

A report released yesterday by ThinkNC First argues that decision makers in Raleigh have walked away from many of the programs that helped to build a middle-class in North Carolina. Authors William Lester and Nichola Lowe of the University of North Carolina review data showing that middle-income jobs have become much harder to find over the last decade. The report ties this disturbing trend to recent policy decisions to underfund state programs that foster industries that create livable wages and ensure that all North Carolinians can access those jobs. The report makes a strong case that state leaders should heed our history and remember how North Carolina became an economic powerhouse in the Southeast in the first place.

The central problem documented in the report is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. For the second half of the 20th century, North Carolina’s economy generated strong employment growth up a down the wage scale. Since the start of the Great Recession however, most of the job growth has been in either very high or very low paying industries. The labor market hollowed out, as many industries, particularly in manufacturing, saw employment decline. We here are the Budget and Tax Center have been watching this same trend, and its not pretty.

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NC Budget and Tax Center

It is becoming ever clearer that recent tax cuts have not endeared North Carolina to the entire business community. Proponents of the 2013 tax cuts argued that they would create a more competitive and business-friendly climate. Looking at recent business climate rankings, however, undermines this argument in two key ways.

First, multinational corporations already liked North Carolina just fine before the latest tax cuts. Second, the tax cuts have undermined our economic competitiveness in other important areas.

The 2014 Top Competitive States ranking by Site Selection, in which North Carolina is ranked #1, suggests that the tax cuts worked. However, North Carolina has consistently been at or near the top of the Site Selection rankings for a decade, including being #1 in some years prior to the 2013 round of tax changes. This ranking is largely based on the level of private capital investment a state secures, the number of jobs created, and a state’s tax climate – as determined by the conservative Tax Foundation. Essentially, low tax rates and high levels of capital investments – made possible in part due to generous economic incentives provided to corporations by state governments – benefits a state’s performance in this ranking. Read More