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Tax cuts never live up to the extravagant promises of job creation and economic growth so often made by their supporters, and last year’s tax reductions are unlikely to turn out any differently. The most recent example is Kansas, which enacted massive tax cuts in 2011. Two years later the state has experienced slower job growth than the national average, contraction in the number of businesses employing people, and loss of its AAA bond rating resulting from its catastrophic, 50% loss in revenue.

While there remains no consensus among academic economists that tax cuts are a strategy to grow the economy—instead, evidence is mounting of their harm—some think tanks keep trying to play the same hand to get a different result. One example is the Beacon Hill Institute, which has frequently deployed its State Tax Analysis Modeling Program (STAMP) during tax cut debates in various states across the country, including last year in North Carolina. Using this model, Beacon Hill claims to show that lowering taxes, or refusing to raise them, will benefit state economies. In the case of North Carolina, they also went a step further to claim that all income groups get a tax cut on average.

A new report from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy reveals a number of serious flaws in the STAMP approach that undermine the accuracy of its claims. In doing so, it calls into question the rosy scenario Beacon Hill paints for tax-cutting states like North Carolina.

Follow me below the fold for are some of the problems identified by ITEP:

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The April employment numbers released Friday show that North Carolina’s unemployment rate is continuing to drop, with 6.2 percent of the state’s residents out of work and looking for jobs.

The drop is a full 2.2 percentage points lower than what it was last April, when 8.4 percent of the state’s labor force was looking for work.

Republican Gov. Pat McCrory, in a written statement, hailed the unemployment drop as a success, but said more progress is still needed.

“We continue to see encouraging signs in North Carolina’s economy with each month that passes,” McCrory said.

Today’s job numbers (click here to read the whole report) show that the state added 14,000 from March to April, and that the overall labor pool (which includes those on the job and those actively looking for work) also grew by about 10,000 from the previous month.

Here’s a quick glimpse of the number’s released today by state commerce department’s labor and economics division:

jobsnumbersapril

Source: N.C. Commerce Department

 

The larger meaning of jobs report data have become heated topics in policy and political circles, with sometimes competing theories about what the steady drop of unemployment in the state means.

The state’s labor pool is significantly lower (by 33,005 people) than it was a year ago, a circumstance that has led some, including the N.C. Justice Center’s Budget and Tax Center, to point out that many of the state’s long-term unemployed stopped looking for work and are not being accounted for in federal labor data. That comes after the state slashed both the length and amount of unemployment people can collect as part of an extensive overhaul of the unemployment system last year.

The state is also seeing huge disparity in different regions when it comes to unemployment, with areas surrounding the economic powerhouses of the Triangle and Charlotte showing low unemployment while more troubled areas still have counties with unemployment topping 10 percent.

Dare, Edgecombe, Graham, Hyde  Scotland and Swain counties all had unemployment rates over 10 percent in March. (Note, these numbers are not seasonally-adjusted, unlike the statewide numbers released today.)

Supporters of that unemployment reform policy, including McCrory and other Republican leaders, say the drop in benefits may have spurred many of the jobless to accept jobs they wouldn’t otherwise have looked at.

The Washington Post had this national perspective on the shrinking labor pool last year, finding that the contracting stems from a combination of the baby-boom generation entering into retirement, younger workers headed back to school and the long-term jobless throwing up their hands.

Here’s a great explainer from the New York Times earlier this month about how federal jobs data (which is released every month and is based on surveys) can fit a number of different narratives (economy better, economy worse, more jobs, less jobs) and all be right.

From the aptly-tilted article, “How Not to be Mislead by the Jobs Report“:

We obsess far too much on the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report.

Think about it this way: It’s the first Friday of the month, and the Labor Department has bad news. The economy has added a mere 64,000 jobs last month, a steep slowdown from 220,000 the month before. From Wall Street to Twitter, the reaction is swift and negative.

The price of oil falls, as do the prices of blue-chip stocks like General Electric. The Federal Reserve faces calls to push interest rates lower. The lead headlines in the next day’s papers talk of faltering job growth.

But what if all the worries were based on nothing more than random statistical noise? What if the apparent decline in job growth came from the inherent volatility of surveys that rely on samples, like the survey that produces the Labor Department’s monthly employment estimate?

 

You can read more here.

(Cross-posted from the CEPR blog)

At the beginning of 2014, thirteen states increased their minimum wage. Of these thirteen states, four passed legislation raising the minimum wage (Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island). In the other nine, the minimum wage automatically increased in line with inflation at the beginning of the year (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington state).

Last month, CEPR looked at state-by-state employment growth in the first two months of 2014, highlighting these 13 minimum wage-raising states for easy comparison. Using new employment data from the BLS, we can now update these figures with data from the month of March.

Below, the chart shows the percentage change in employment for each state. The baseline is the average of the October, November, and December 2013 employment figures, which were measured against the average employment level for 2014 (January, February, and March). Overall, the findings are even more positive than last month’s employment figures. We see, again, little to no evidence for the claim that raising the minimum wage threatens job creation efforts. Read More

At a time when an increasing number of jobs in the state are expected to require some level of postsecondary training, North Carolina families and students have to shoulder more and more of the cost of a college education.

A report released today by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities highlights that state spending per student for higher education in North Carolina is 25 percent below pre-recession levels when adjusted for inflation. Meanwhile, average tuition at North Carolina’s public, four-year colleges increased by more than 34 percent during this time period.

Some of the outcomes from these budget cuts have been well-documented on North Carolina’s campuses. For example, in the 2014 academic year, state funding cuts led NC State to eliminate 187 full-time equivalent positions and 27 positions from its library system, the report highlights. UNC-Chapel Hill has eliminated 493 positions, cut 16,000 course seats, increased class sizes, cut four of its seven centrally supported computer labs, and eliminated two distance education centers. Read More

jobseconomyThis is new from the experts at the N.C. Budget and Tax Center:

Labor force decline still driving drop in unemployment for many metro areas

RALEIGH (April 29, 2014) — Despite falling unemployment rates, most of North Carolina’s metro areas are still waiting for meaningful job creation, according to new jobless numbers released by the Division of Employment Security this morning. Nine out of the state’s 14 metros saw weaker job creation over the last year than they did over the same period in previous years. In 7 of 14 of the state’s metro areas, the drop in the unemployment rate between March 2013 and March 2014 was driven by a shrinking labor force and not by large-scale employment growth. Read More