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For those wonks out there following the details on how these tax plans are going to impact North Carolinians across the income distribution we have put together this short piece on the different tools that can be used to describe who pays. By far, the economic incidence model is the best way to estimate population-level impacts.  That is the model that the Budget & Tax Center has used.

While some have said that these tax plans benefit everyone based on what will happen to select individual taxpayers, it is important to be clear that some will see their taxes go up. The infographic below shows just a few examples of who those taxpayers could be.

infogrfk- House-Senate Plan_Layout 1

Most importantly, though, the debate over who will be impacted by tax changes should be grounded in the best available tools and an economic incidence model can give us the best information about how the population overall will fare after tax changes have been made.

The Senate’s historically unprecedented $1 billion-a-year tax cut passed out of the Finance Committee yesterday, moving steep reductions in personal income tax rates and outright elimination of the corporate income tax one step closer to becoming law.  While legislative leaders spoke glowingly about reducing North Carolina’s income tax rates to below those in other southeastern states, they remained conspicuously silent on how those other states have dealt with keeping their own income taxes so low–by increasing property taxes or sales taxes (or both).

This raises an important question—will North Carolina’s state income tax cuts simply lead to higher property taxes and sales taxes?

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