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srs-unemployment3While it is positive news that fewer North Carolinians were unemployed in 2014 than in 2013, the reality is that we are still far from pre-recession employment rates.

As the Budget and Tax Center pointed out a in a release today:

Despite the decline in metro area unemployment year over year, there were still more unemployed North Carolinians in nearly all metro areas in December 2014 than there were in December 2007.

The latest data from the BTC’s County Labor Market Watch and Recession Watch shows that:

Many counties were better off in December 2007 than December 2014. There are still 24 North Carolina counties with unemployment rates higher than what they had in December 2007. There are 60 counties that had more unemployed workers in December 2014 than they did in December 2007, and 72 counties had fewer people in the labor force this past December than in December 2007.

Based on the data, slightly over half of North Carolina counties have an unemployment rate that is higher than the statewide 5.5 percent unemployment rate. Graham County at 12.3 percent has the highest unemployment rate in the state. These numbers are evidence that while the employment situation is improving in some counties, others are clearly not getting the help they need to recover from the recession.

“Any approach to badly needed economic development must consider this uneven recovery,” said Alexandra Forter Sirota, director of the BTC. “Lawmakers must pursue tools that deliver targeted support to grow opportunity in communities that continue to struggle now seven years after the start of the Great Recession.”

Commentary

As it has at the national level, North Carolina’s official unemployment rate continues to fall. And while there’s certainly some good news there, numerous analysts continue to explain why this recovery is especially tepid and shallow for a huge proportion of North Carolinians (and why the trickledown economic policies pursued by state leaders continue to fall short). The latest comes from the economic wonks at CFED. Here’s the release:

New Report Finds North Carolina Ranks Near the Bottom for Financial Security of its Residents
Overall Poor Performance Shows Persistent Financial Insecurity, Need for Comprehensive Public Policy Response

Washington, D.C. – Despite an improving national economy, new data released today by the Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED) show many North Carolina residents are barely scraping by. CFED’s 2015 Assets & Opportunity Scorecard ranked the state near the bottom among all states for its high number of low-wage jobs (ranked 41st), as well as its high number of low-income residents who don’t have health insurance (42nd) or a four-year college degree (44th).

The troubling data underscore the need for programs and policies that help more families achieve financial security, including reinstatement of the state’s Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and expansion of Medicaid. Additionally, a Children’s Savings Account program would provide every child in the state with their own matched savings account for postsecondary education. Recent research has shown that these accounts dramatically increase college attendance and graduation rates. Read More

Commentary, NC Budget and Tax Center

Talking about a single North Carolina “economy” doesn’t make very much sense. Whenever new labor market data comes out, there is talk about how the North Carolina economy , or the US economy, or the global economy, are doing. The macroeconomic perspective is important, and talking in broad terms is convenient, but the economy is not some monolithic abstraction, a disembodied thing that we can’t really see. Even in an interconnected global market, the day-to-day economies that human beings experience are local. The economies we see impacting our neighborhood, our circle of friends, our family, and our wallet, those are the economies that we live in.

2014 was a very mixed economic bag for local economies in North Carolina. As will be shown below, parts of North Carolina are growing quite nicely, but it is still very tough sledding in a lot of communities across the State.

2014 End of Year Charts_uneven recovery

Location, location, location warns the old business adage. That’s great if you’re in a hot spot, but as the map above shows, most of North Carolina is not booming. While the November data (see here for the latest county data) are not updated for this map, the fundamental story has not changed. On the one end, counties that are in or around metro centers have largely surpassed pre-recession levels of employment, with some counties posting 10% or greater gains. That sounds like healthy growth, and it is. On the other end, however, many counties have not experienced what anyone would consider a return to robust economic performance. Sixty of North Carolina’s 100 counties have not gotten back to their pre-recession levels of employment, and in fifteen counties current employment is more than 10 percent lower than it was in 2007.

One could argue that some of the shifts seen here are simply the result of increasing urbanization, a trend that goes back well before the Great Recession. As more and more working age people move toward urban centers, the employment level in many rural areas should naturally drop. However, the losses in employment that many counties have experience cannot be entirely explained by urban migration. Based on data from the North Carolina State Demographer, there are only 23 counties in North Carolina where the change in employment between 2007 and 2014 outpaced the change working age residents. Put another way, the growth of employment has not kept up with working age population in more than three-quarters of the counties in North Carolina.

2014 End of Year Charts_barriers for communities of color

Geography is not the only knife dicing up the North Carolina economy. As can be seen above, the recovery is less complete in communities of color around the state. Unemployment remains higher than it was before the recession for all ethnic groups, so there’s still cause for concern across the board. However, unemployment remains even more elevated for black and Hispanic North Carolinians. The unemployment rate for African-Americans remains 2.2 percentage points above pre-recession levels and for Latinos   1.7 percentage points compared to 2.7 and 1.3 percentage points nationally for both groups respectively.  While African-Americans in North Carolina are doing better than the national average, the change in the unemployment rate for this group is nearly twice that for whites in the state who saw their unemployment rate increase by just 1.4 percentage points above pre-recession levels.

Of course this is hardly an exhaustive analysis of the geographic and social lines that shape the economic landscape of North Carolina. But when we start to look more closely at specific local economies, we see very different stories about different parts of our state. While we celebrate the economic bright spots, we can’t let struggling North Carolina communities fall into shadow.

News

Many North Carolina counties are seeing steady drops in their unemployment rates, while a fifth of the counties saw unemployment rates climb in November from the prior month, according to county-level jobs numbers released by the N.C. Commerce Department’s Labor and Economics Division.

This month’s results (scroll down to see county rankings) show that all 100 counties lowered their unemployment rates over the last year. Two counties — Graham and Scotland – had unemployment rates over 10 percent, while

But there’s still a gap in most of the state from where local economics were before the nation’s Great Recession began in early 2008.

Two-thirds of North Carolina 100 counties in North Carolina had unemployed people now than they had in December 2007, and 67 counties also had smaller labor forces.

(The state overall had 246,318 unemployed people in November 2014, an increase of 34,482 from December 2007 levels. The labor force, however, has grown from 4.5 million in Dec. 2007 to 4.62 million in November 2014.)

This chart (which has data through Oct. 2014 and hasn’t been updated to include today’s data) from the N.C. Budget and Tax Center shows that 15 counties in the state have seen drops of higher than 10 percent of the number of people employed in counties. (Note: Both N.C. Policy Watch and the Budget and Tax Center are part of the N.C. Justice Center, an anti-poverty non-profit).

BTCemploymentchart

 

Jobs data for November 2014 shows that the state, as a whole, had 25,373 more people working now than it did a year ago. Unemployment rolls also dropped in that time period by nearly 80,000, and several economists say that gap is caused in large party by “missing workers” that exited the labor force after struggling and not finding work.

Read More

Commentary

New from the good people at the Budget and Tax Center:

Five years into the official economic recovery, there were signs of a strengthening recovery in North Carolina albeit uneven and insufficient to deliver improved economic well-being broadly. The result is far too many North Carolinians remain without jobs or working for low-wages. Poverty levels have remained high and inequality has grown, both contributing to a less sustainable economy in the long-term. Here are 12 charts that tell the story of North Carolina’s economy in 2014.

Click here to see all twelve.