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New from the good people at the Budget and Tax Center:

Five years into the official economic recovery, there were signs of a strengthening recovery in North Carolina albeit uneven and insufficient to deliver improved economic well-being broadly. The result is far too many North Carolinians remain without jobs or working for low-wages. Poverty levels have remained high and inequality has grown, both contributing to a less sustainable economy in the long-term. Here are 12 charts that tell the story of North Carolina’s economy in 2014.

Click here to see all twelve.

Missing Workers, NC Budget and Tax Center

This is the season of absolutes, a time for reflecting and rendering judgment. Has it been a year to remember or a year to forget? Are we on the right path, or hopelessly lost? The truth is usually somewhere in the middle, but that doesn’t make provocative copy, and so it is often ignored. While some voices in North Carolina would have you believe that we have finally put the Great Recession in the rear-view mirror, the economic damage lingers. As the two charts below show, a year of generally positive economic performance has not erased the imprint that the Recession left on North Carolina.

2014 End of Year Charts_stll not enough jobs

There is still a larger percentage of North Carolinians without employment than before the Great Recession. From the start of the millennium through 2007, more than 62% of North Carolinians had participated in the workforce each year. That rate dropped precipitously in 2008, and kept sliding until it hit a low of roughly 58% in 2011. While there have been modest gains in the last few years, the labor market in North Carolina still has not recovered sufficiently to return employment levels to where they were before the financial crisis.

2014 End of Year Charts_real unemployment high

Proponents of the “Carolina Comeback” story point to the fact that North Carolina’s headline unemployment rate has come down over the last year, so what’s the worry? The problem is that many people have such a hard time finding work that they don’t appear as “unemployed” in the official figures. A BTC analysis of labor data indicates that the real unemployment rate is twice the official level once we consider all of the people who are not currently looking for work because job opportunities are too few. To be clear, this is not a tally of people who have retired or gone back to school, but rather an estimate of what the unemployment rate would be if we include all of the people who would otherwise be expected to be in the labor force based on historic figures. Including these missing workers pushes North Carolina’s real unemployment rate to almost 13%, twice the official estimate.

The central point here is that we cannot lose sight of the work that still remains to be done. While there has been a good deal of encouraging economic news this year, there are still far too many North Carolinians for whom the recovery remains a promise unfulfilled.

Stay tuned over the next several days for a series of BTC posts that illuminate the 2014 economic landscape and the challenges that need to be addressed in 2015.

NC Budget and Tax Center

BTC - Missing Workers November 2014

The latest report on labor market conditions was released on Friday showing that despite improvements in North Carolina, there remains a long way to go to proclaim a fully recovered economy. One measure of just what remains unaddressed is the number of missing workers in the state, those workers who if job opportunities were stronger would be in the labor market looking for work.

In November 2014, there were an estimated 302,285 missing workers in North Carolina. If these workers had actually been counted in the official unemployment rate that rate would be 12.4 percent, more than twice the official rate for November of 5.8%.

NC Budget and Tax Center

Yesterday, the Labor and Economic Division released October labor market data for all 100 counties.  The headline of the release was that the unemployment rate had dropped in 98 counties, or nearly all, in the past month.  It sounds like good news, and it is, but the new data also show that many parts of the state are still struggling mightily. As the Budget and Tax Center has noted before, you have to look deeper than the headline unemployment number to know whether employment prospects are actually improving.

Such a look behind the unemployment rate does show signs of labor markets improving year-over-year, primarily along the lines seen at the state and national level.  The number of unemployed people has declined since October 2013 in all counties and a majority of counties have seen gains in employment.

But it is not “mission accomplished” time yet. The October county data contain worrying signs that should not be glossed over.

The majority of counties have not caught up to pre-recession levels of employment. Employment prospects are still slow to emerge in many counties, particularly in the rural parts of the state. Sixty six counties have more unemployed people in October 2014 than they did in December 2007.

Even more concerning, roughly one-third of the counties registered declines in employment from October 2013 through October of this year. Beyond not having caught up to pre-recession employment, many parts of our state have taken a step back over the last year. Again, this troubling trend is most concentrated in rural counties. Read More

NC Budget and Tax Center

This week’s Prosperity Watch uses newly available data from the Economic Policy Institute to shed light on the experience of unemployment for different groups in North Carolina.  While the state performs better than the nation by having a lower barrier to employment for African-American and Latino workers in particular, the unemployment rate for these groups still remains far above where it was before the Great Recession started and is still greater than that for white workers. You can check out the full Prosperity Watch here.

The Economic Policy Institute data is presented in this interactive map that shows North Carolina’s better than average performance in the race to recovery for all groups but the continued need to focus public policies that would reduce barriers for workers of color in our state.