New lethal virus projections offer bad news for key electoral swing states like NC

The Center for American Progress reported the sobering news this morning that the election will conclude next week at the same moment that the COVID-19 pandemic is spiking. What’s more, several key swing states like North Carolina will be among the hardest hit. This is from the news release the group distributed:

The election will occur in the midst of skyrocketing, exponential spread nationally, and in particular, in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.

We used the Oliver Wyman Navigator model to estimate the percentage increase in daily new cases (7-day average) from October 1 and this past Sunday (October 25) through November 3 and November 15. This model is among the most accurate, with a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of only 1.5 percent for U.S. projections. Further, we believe this model is well calibrated: applying the summer’s epidemic curve to September’s baseline yields approximately the same incidence as the model in early November.

Nationally, the U.S. is projected to hit 125,000 new cases per day in mid-November. In the states examined, in the month leading up to November 3, new cases are projected to have more than doubled. From October 25 onward, in these states, new cases are projected to rise by 26 percent by November 3 and to skyrocket by 82 percent by November 15. Every state examined is projected to experience an astronomical spike between now and November 3 through November 15.

In the month leading up to November 3, new cases are projected to have more than doubled in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. From October 25 through November 15, new cases are projected to more than double in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and Ohio.

The Center also distributed a series of graphs that chart the expected spikes for several states (see North Carolina’s below). One can only hope that voters take note of this sobering reality as they cast their ballots — both to stay as safe as they can and to inform their votes.



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